Talk:Bayes Rule, conditional probability, independence

note for worked out example . The term P(DISpos) used for teh unfortunate scientist is probably not accurate. The value given is 0.01% of the population has this disease, thus if you pull someone at random from the street this is the frequency with which you will find the disease. This probability represents a prior belief. However, the unfortunate biologist is not from the street and just had an accident that significantly raises his risk of being infected. To what value, it is hard to say, but it is much higher than the background rate of 0.01%.
AICHE link under "underlying principels and significance of Bayes' rule" is dead. As is the science direct one. Url for http://www.dct.tudelft.nl/~verheijen/research/Uerheijen2003a.pdf is also dead.